How will fuel prices affect development in Chatham County

[Stargazer]

Assuming fuel prices remain the same or rise (which I think they will do), I believe our growth
patterns will fundamentally change. 

[Big Mo]

Assuming fuel prices remain the same or rise (which I think they will do), I believe our growth
patterns will fundamentally change. 

Can you please speculate a bit more - HOW do you think Chatham's growth patterns will fundamentally change? 

[Gene Galin]

Some of this will depend on how much you want to spend on your daily commute.

$4 a day? $4 buys you a gallon of gas.

Car mileage ~ 20 miles/gallon = 20 miles round trip gives you a 10 mile radius

You can work for UNC and live ten miles away in North Chatham
or you can risk getting your car broken into and live 10 miles away from the UNC park and ride off 15-501 near the Orange County line

IT mentioned the Goodnight property - how many different components will Goodnight be able to fit within those 3000+ acres (and within 10 miles)?

Will there be a new tipping point line along 15-501 between the Goodnight development and the Chapel Hill? Those south of the line will gravitate towards Pittsboro and Goodnightville, those north will be more chapelhillcentric?

Let's not forget the viability of "teleworking". My graduate paper was about how teleworking would change the face of future workplaces. The technology is now in place (although not in all rural sections of Chatham). A lot of the change will require a change in management thinking.

Access to good high-speed internet service may become as or more important than access to a good roadways.

[Stargazer]

Can you please speculate a bit more - HOW do you think Chatham's growth patterns will fundamentally change? 

Pretty much what Gene said.   

But seriously, we live in NW Chatham - about 10 miles from the nearest grocery store (Siler City) , almost 20 from Pittsboro.
Unfortunately, no high speed internet or prospect of getting it (in my lifetime anyway).  One of my neighbors works in
Durham, another in Greensboro.  Neither has prospects for carpooling.  In short gas prices are killing them.  I think most
folks would consider these realities before moving here.

[Wahoo]

Siler City is definitely not as busy as it has been in the past. Driving through town the other night is was very quiet, not many cars on the road, store parking lots empty and a lot of house for sale.

One reason you will find houses for sale are because the home owners are selling their homes while the neighborhoods are somewhat nice . Like my neighborhood was at one time . Before the property values fall .


I read the article in the paper this week and I have not seen anyone leaving . As a matter of fact I have seen more new hispanics walking by my house more than ever . I think more are coming than leaving . At least in my neighborhood.

[natvrabit]

UNC et. al. have very little concern for the staff. To preserve parking on campus (for faculty mainly), they jacked up the parking permits to outrageous hundreds of dollars a year, so many of the staff could not afford it. Those were the same people that received little or NO raises (under declarations of tight budgets) while some received outrageous salary increases and bonuses at the same time.
C. Hill transit by in large does a good job with the mass transit system. There are sacrifices of additional time
involved on top of an already long work day involved with using the park and ride lots. They have some down falls as well, I used it and first sign of slight snow, the busses stopped running and there you are (in town) and your vehicle out in tim buk tu and no way to get to it but hike...a UNC "benefit"... GLAD I am DONE with it.

[VAHeel]

I dont think moving where you are was a real population pattern, to begin with.  I think our settlers will pretty much keep coming and going to pretty much the same places they were going to before.  If anything, look for more retail development as stores and restaraunts figure out what a huge advantage it is over the competition to be "close."

Can you please speculate a bit more - HOW do you think Chatham's growth patterns will fundamentally change? 

Pretty much what Gene said.   

But seriously, we live in NW Chatham - about 10 miles from the nearest grocery store (Siler City) , almost 20 from Pittsboro.
Unfortunately, no high speed internet or prospect of getting it (in my lifetime anyway).  One of my neighbors works in
Durham, another in Greensboro.  Neither has prospects for carpooling.  In short gas prices are killing them.  I think most
folks would consider these realities before moving here.

[Stargazer]

I dont think moving where you are was a real population pattern, to begin with. 

Well VAHeel, I guess you know more about where I live than I do.   

[VAHeel]

didn't you just say you lived in the middle of nowhere?  I dont' think the population patterns in chatham were ever "more people will be moving to the middle of nowhere."  If you were experiencing a huge influx of neighbors, and that now seems to be changing, please correct me.

This will not, in my opinion, stop people from moving places like Chapel Ridge, Briar Chapel, Pittsboro Place, or any other combination of Ridge, Briar, and Chapel out there, and I think those were the patterns to begin with.

[Stargazer]

didn't you just say you lived in the middle of nowhere? 

No.

I doubt that those living around here feel that way either.
Just because our growth rate isn't as high as that in the NE (thank God!) doesn't mean
that people haven't been moving here.

[VAHeel]

whatever.  I certainly didn't mean to offend you.  I'm sorry if you felt slighted in any way. 

When I say "population patterns" I pretty much mean the parts of the county with the highest growth rates, it didnt sound like that was you from the lack of close grocery stores, high speed, etc.  Certainly, people will think twice before moving to those kinds of locations, especially now, but as that was hardly where most of our new population was headed, I don't think it will have that much of an impact.

[stephensmith]

From the discussion here, sounds like I live in the "sweet spot" of the county as far as the new economic realities go -- about halfway between Pittsboro and Chapel Hill.  Too bad I'm not commuting just to one of those places.  Instead I'm commuting 44 miles round-trip to RTP.  At least they let me telecommute one day a week.

[lynnhayes]

The thing about development patterns in Chatham County is that Chatham has always been the place to go to get acreage.  When you want to live in the country you're willing to drive to get there.  Rich drives nearly an hour each way to Raleigh every day and I'm in the car all day with my job.  Our gas cost has gone up $100/month since last summer, and who knows how much since five years ago.  But we pay the gas and don't go out to eat because we love where we live.

People will still drive to Chatham for acreage because you can't get it anywhere else.  But will they drive to Chatham for postage sized lots?  Evidently not, because it's Chatham Forest and Powell Place that are really hurting.  I'm not so sure they'll go to Briar Chapel either, even though it's closer to Chapel Hill. 

All of the realtors are seeing a steep decline in out of towners moving into the area, and they are the ones who typically move into the newer neighborhoods. 

[belle]

The thing about development patterns in Chatham County is that Chatham has always been the place to go to get acreage.  When you want to live in the country you're willing to drive to get there.  Rich drives nearly an hour each way to Raleigh every day and I'm in the car all day with my job.  Our gas cost has gone up $100/month since last summer, and who knows how much since five years ago.  But we pay the gas and don't go out to eat because we love where we live.

People will still drive to Chatham for acreage because you can't get it anywhere else.  But will they drive to Chatham for postage sized lots?  Evidently not, because it's Chatham Forest and Powell Place that are really hurting.  I'm not so sure they'll go to Briar Chapel either, even though it's closer to Chapel Hill. 

All of the realtors are seeing a steep decline in out of towners moving into the area, and they are the ones who typically move into the newer neighborhoods. 

when the '90's economy was hot and Redhat and other RTP companies couldn't expand fast enough, is when all those little lots and big houses were planned.

look at it now. are they starter homes? the schools are not optimum. gas is what, $150-$200-$400/month to commute. no nearby night life. small to no room for a swing set or garden. anyone on an entry level salary with kids will look elsewhere. have you seen Apex lately? they boast Wake Co. schools, too.

Chatham may see older professionals, with established careers. they want acreage, a garden and a pasture full of goats or horses. or just trees. no one else will be able to afford $300 or more just to get to work.

[natvrabit]

In some cases the housing market is so sour elsewhere, folks wanting to move to NC can't unload where they live in order to come to NC.  My former neighbor is in Jax, Fl. due to a job transfer and has wanted to return to NC, but has had no luck in selling her home there, as about 20k are on the market.

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